Less than a year ago we published in this space the note “Personal Finance: two keys to surviving in the marmot economy “. There, we hinted at the movie Groundhog Day, where Bill Murray plays a meteorologist trapped in a cycle of time where the same day is repeated over and over again. Our goal was to graph the repetitive nature of the Argentine economy and its cycles that lead, as Gerchunoff and Llach once called, from the illusion to disenchantment.
Well, now we are again in one of those cycles known as “cheap dollar”: for political reasons, the government of the day decides to freeze the exchange rate for a certain period of time and distort the prices of the economy until the pressure is It becomes unbearable and the lid of the pot jumps through the air with a devaluation of those that we can not get used to despite its recidivism.
As in personal finance, there are always lifeguards, in today’s column, we will review 5 tips to take advantage of the cheap dollar, knowing that we are facing a transitory situation against which it is advisable to act with caution.
1) Invest in pesos weighing liquidity
Taking advantage of high rates is always a temptation. The main drawback is that no alarm will sound to let us know in time that conditions are about to change and that another dollar is coming. Consequently, the smartest option refers to investments where, in addition to getting good rates, we can get capital immediately in case a new exchange rate begins. The Money Market Investment Funds offer similar interests to the fixed terms and the advantage of having the money at the time of requesting it, while the fixed income funds in pesos usually provide a somewhat higher return with the settlement of positions in 24 hours. Also, the fintech as Mercado Libre and Afluenta offer similar options. In the first case, the balanced insight already has a constant interest (provided that the user authorizes it) that today touches 50% per year, while in the second the return on investment can reach 73% and the investor It has the possibility of selling its position in a secondary market to obtain funds. In all cases, they are options that surpass the traditional fixed term: they offer higher profits with a significantly shorter period of immobilization.
2) Advance the purchase of tickets abroad
If the idea is to travel abroad in the next summer vacation, this is the right time to buy the air ticket and reserve the accommodation. On the one hand, the time left to complete the trip and the crisis that many companies in the sector are going through, together with the opening of the aeronautical market, make the ticket cheaper. On the other hand, the ironed dollar offers the possibility of paying a reasonable price in pesos, even more so if we contemplate the possibility of the currency waking up before or after the primary elections in August or the general elections in October. If the operation is satisfactory, the holidays will be enjoyed twice.
3) Buy in installments at the subsidized rate under certain circumstances
Last week we analyzed the conditions that can make the purchase plan in installments at subsidized rate Now 12 a good business for the credit cardholder. The important thing is to weigh more the evolution of our future income than the inflation spent at the time of purchase. Accumulating debt in principle cheap is not a benefit if expensive debts have not yet been paid (for high rates). In addition, the price financed must be compared with the one proposed by other merchants that charge in cash. Also, the administrative cost of the card and its renewal, since payment in installments requires us to keep the plastic for a long time. If the accounts are in favor, then the ironed dollar will represent an excellent opportunity to take debt in pesos at a subsidized rate.
4) For the most daring: encourage the carry trade
Those investors with low-risk aversion may consider selling part of their dollars and at the same time buy that amount in the future (for example, 3 months) in the Forex market. With the pesos obtained from the sale, look for investments with high rates such as those seen in tip 1. In this way, they will be protected (covered, in the financial jargon) of a possible devaluation that dynamite the yields in pesos. Whenever the accounts close in advance, this operation allows obtaining good yields in the hard currency because at the end of the bet the investor will return to make the dollars through his purchase in the future. It is a common practice of sophisticated operators and investors.
5) Buy “door to door” abroad
Months ago, with a rising dollar and very low purchase limits, the system for buying products abroad online and requesting home delivery was considered prohibitive. Now things are different thanks to a series of official measures that allow 12 annual purchases for up to 50 dollars each and it is not required to enter the AFIP website or have a tax code or physically go to Customs. While the cheap dollar lasts, this simplification makes the search for products outside our borders attractive. Everything indicates that it is best to take advantage of the moment before risking a lasting stabilization of the dollar, more with elections on the horizon and economic programs that do not aim to hold the currency for a long time.
It is impossible to ensure that we remain immersed in the logic of the groundhog, although our economic history makes us think that, before or after the electoral contest, the dollar will resume the upward path with the consequences we already know for our purchasing power and our income in pesos. Therefore, in addition to warning that in Argentina all calm tends to be temporary, from here we propose, once again, to take action and seize the moment.